
For anyone making a prediction, that's one problem right off the bat that they'll face when a new season starts, and that's they don't have a lot of evidence from the current season.
League tables can be subject to massive volatility, summer transfers haven't been completed yet and a team that was in a good state in May could be different in August thanks to a new coach, squad or starting eleven.
That does not mean that early season games can't be analysed. It does not mean that the information gathered last season should be less important than what's going on in the present season.
Make sure you look beyond the league table.
After 3 games, a team boasting 7 points could appear great. But how did they get these points?
One club could have three new and/or weak opponents. A fourth has scored four points but defied the odds by taking them on a bet against title contenders. That difference is only apparent in the table.
Review the results and consider the opponents, venues and performances. It's important to look at goals scored and conceded in relation to the difficulty of the fixtures they came from.
Discuss the results and the reasons behind them.4. Review What Changed During the Summer and discuss why?
Last season's stats are of last season's team.
Those numbers can be misleading if you make transfers. The absence of a regular goalkeeper, central defender or top scorer can have more far-reaching consequences than the league table suggests. But new signings can have the opposite effect, albeit of course if they are the right sort of reputation in the right sort of place they will be right away.
The same needs to be done for managerial changes. A new coach has the potential to make a whole host of changes: formation, pressing, possession and even who the players are that start the match regularly.
See how much of the team that created the historical form remains, before using it as a predictive evidence.
To make the most informed decision, the best option is to analyse the match before making your choice.
A frequent error when choosing markets is to make the selection without first working out whether or not a fixture suits the market.
You might think the home side has the edge but you're not sure enough to bet for them to win outright. That analysis could better be expressed in the form of Double Chance or Draw No Bet. Similarly, attacking teams are not always the best to play Over 2.5 as one may have had trouble creating chances.
That's when it helps to make a comparison of the markets that are available. For instance, if a bettor on BetWinner Somalia has formed a view on a football match, they can consult the various football betting markets for the match instead of making all their wagers as 1X2.
The prediction should go towards the market, not the other way around!
Handle Small Samples with Care
Just three victories do not necessarily mean it's a season-long trend. Three defeats doesn't do it for me.
Small samples are especially hazardous at the start of a campaign because unusual results have an unduly marked effect on the numbers. A 5-0 win can go a long way toward making a team's offensive numbers look great for a few weeks.
That's why multiple indicators need to be taken into account: current performances, home and away records, team news and pertinent results from the previous season.
The reliable football predictions guide also emphasizes on proven form, rather than an absolute certainty, as well as head-to-head and injury details.
Keep in mind that Information Too
Odds are not just a number which represents the possible return.
They are also an implied probability statement which takes into account the bookmaker's margin. Two favourites at 1.40 and 1.90 could both be considered contenders for victory, however differing degrees of certainty are being shown in the market.
However, that does not necessarily mean that the shorter price is the better choice.
Rather, make a comparison between the assumed probability and your own probability. When your analysis is mostly in line with the market, the price might not warrant any action. If there's a significant difference, it's worth exploring it first; and that exploration can help you make a choice.
There is a need for good predictions to be made in context.
In early season football, you will be rewarded for patience.
It's the results that count, but so do the opponents. All previous statistics are irrelevant unless the team has substantially changed in at least one way. Odds offer helpful information, but they can't be a substitute for independent match analysis.
Even most importantly, one might not be able to make any prediction about a football game without reading the score. Analysis is not intended to remove uncertainty, but to help in making a better informed decision in the face of uncertainty.
That principle is key in August and will be key later in the season – when the league tables will be quite clear.